STATISTICAL MODELLING OF FUEL DEMAND DYNAMICS PRICE ELASTICITIE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.69980/ydhcxz21Keywords:
Fuel demand, Price elasticity, Panel data, Spatial dependence, BrazilAbstract
This study analyzed fuel-demand dynamics across Brazilian states, combining spatial dependence, temporal effects, economic determinants, and price elasticities in a single panel econometric model. The data analysed included a balanced sample of 27 Brazilian states and 432 state-year observations, spanning 16 years from 2006 to 2021, and were analysed with descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, multicollinearity diagnostics, generalized least squares with alternative structures of serial correlation, and spatial dependence measures. The results indicated that gasoline demand is negatively related to current and one-year-lagged gasoline prices and the two-year-lagged gasoline prices, as evidenced by the elasticities −0.994, −0.366, and −0.548, respectively. Positive cross-price effects of 0.669, 0.311, and 0.184 were observed for ethanol, which is consistent with substitution between gasoline and ethanol. Gasoline demand was found to be positively correlated with GDP per capita and negatively correlated with both alternative motorization and spatially weighted motorization, while conventional motorization was found to show positive results. The spatial analysis showed that gasoline demand at the state level had significant long-run clustering, with Moran's I=0.409 and permutation p=0.005. However, the long-run clustering is insignificant after multivariable adjustment. Overall, the results confirm that Brazilian gasoline demand is affected by both the price and the combined effects of the economic, temporal and regional factors, justifying the use of panel and spatial methods in transport-energy planning, gasoline taxation and alternative-fuel policy.
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