STATISTICAL QUANTIFICATION OF HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT VARIABILITY AND ITS CLIMATIC–ENVIRONMENTAL DETERMINANTS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.69980/x3h5q640Keywords:
Hydrological drought, Standardized Streamflow Index, Climatic variability, Environmental determinants, Statistical modelingAbstract
Hydrological drought represents a complex water-resource challenge shaped by interactions among climatic variability, catchment characteristics, and environmental conditions. This study statistically quantified the temporal and spatial variability of hydrological drought and evaluated its climatic and environmental determinants across multiple river basins. Hydrological drought was characterized by using the Standardized Streamflow Index and a Q25 low-flow threshold, while climatic and environmental controls were examined using descriptive statistics, temporal and basin-level comparisons, Spearman correlation, and multivariable regression with year fixed effects and catchment-clustered standard errors. The analysis included 6,999 catchment-year observations from 241 catchments. Mean drought intensity was 1.137, with an average of 1.57 drought months and 64.49 low-flow drought days annually. Drought intensity exhibited a significant positive temporal trend and substantial variation among river basins. Annual precipitation was negatively associated with drought intensity, whereas potential evapotranspiration showed a significant positive association. Reservoir influence was negatively associated with drought intensity, while tree cover showed a positive adjusted relationship. The multivariable model explained approximately 21.6% of drought-intensity variability. Overall, the findings demonstrate that hydrological drought cannot be attributed to precipitation variability alone and emphasize the combined roles of climatic forcing, land-surface characteristics, catchment conditions, and human regulation in explaining drought variability.
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