CORRELATION BETWEEN FOREST FIRE OCCURRENCE AND CLIMATIC VARIABLES IN RANCHI: A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.69980/pvnhav90Keywords:
Forest Fire, Climate Change, Rainfall, Temperature, Multiple RegressionAbstract
Forest fire exerts a considerable influence on the ecosystem, biodiversity, carbon cycling and environmental sustainability. Forest fire occurrence has been higher and more pronounced in tropical regions because of climate fluctuations. Events involving forest fires have increased in frequency and severe due to increasing temperature and altered precipitation. The aim of this research is to evaluate the relationship between forest fires, rainfall and temperature during the last 30 years in Ranchi District, Jharkhand, India. The data were statistically analyzed to identify climatic influence on forest fire occurance for annual data between 2004-2025.Descriptive statistics were used to analyze forest fire records. An analysis of trends showed a notable rise in fire incidents following 2019. Annual rainfall (r = 0.522, p = 0.013) and mean annual temperature (r = 0.585, p = 0.004) showed a significant positive association with Pearson correlation. 51.8% of the variation in the yearly occurrence of forest fires was explained by the regression equation (R2 = 0.518). Based on the seasonal analysis, 93.5% of the fire events took place prior to the monsoon season, and The months with the highest number of fire incidents were March and April.The results revealed that the forest fire activity in Ranchi District is significantly affected by climate variability. They emphasize the importance of fire management based on climate, early warning systems and sustainable forest conservation planning.
References
1.Sharma, Shivam Kumar, and Krishan Kumar. "Forest Fire Effects on Structure, Composition, and Functioning of Ecosystem." Forest Fire and Climate Change:
2.Insights into Science. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2025. 79-99.
3.Flannigan, Michael D., Brian J. Stocks, and B. Mike Wotton. "Climate change and forest fires." Science of the total environment 262.3 (2000): 221-229.
4.Jones, Matthew W., et al. "Global and regional trends and drivers of fire under climate change." Reviews of Geophysics 60.3 (2022): e2020RG000726.
5.Tomar, Jagpal Singh, et al. "Forest fire hazards vulnerability and risk assessment in Sirmaur district forest of Himachal Pradesh (India): A geospatial approach." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 10.7 (2021): 447.
6.Kanga, Shruti, Gaurav Tripathi, and Suraj Kumar Singh. "Forest fire hazards vulnerability and risk assessment in Bhajji forest range of Himachal Pradesh (India): a geospatial approach." Journal of Remote Sensing & GIS 8.1 (2017): 1-16.
7.Mansingh, Abinash, et al. "Tree diversity, population structure, biomass accumulation, and carbon stock dynamics in tropical dry deciduous forests of Eastern India." BMC Ecology and Evolution 25.1 (2025): 48.
8.Kumar, Sanath, Sanjeet Kumar, and Susanta Kumar Biswal. "Forest Fire Dynamics: Ecological Consequences, Prevention, and Community-Based Management." Annals of Agri-Bio Research 30.2 (2025): 114-125.
9.Jha, Amit Kumar, Ajai Singh, and Pratibha Warwade. "Effect of tropical dry and wet forest on convective precipitation-A case study of Ranchi Region, Jharkhand, India."
10.Kaur, Apperdeep. Geography of India: Land, People, and Resources. Academic Guru Publishing House, 2025.
11.Tigga, Anuja, and B. Hema Malini. "Climatic variability in Jharkhand State, India." Deccan Geographer 41.2 (2003): 13-19.
12.Kumar, Rahul, and Purabi Saikia. "Forest resources of Jharkhand, Eastern India: socio-economic and bio-ecological perspectives." Socio-economic and Eco-biological Dimensions in Resource use and Conservation: Strategies for Sustainability. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. 61-101.
13.Sahana, Mehebub, and Tariq Ahmad Ganaie. "GIS-based landscape vulnerability assessment to forest fire susceptibility of Rudraprayag district, Uttarakhand, India." Environmental earth sciences 76.20 (2017): 676.
14.Kashyap, Rahul, and A. C. Pandey. "Spatio-temporal variability assessment of pre-monsoon temperature to deduce their impact on Forest Fire events in relation to relief across Himalayan region." J. Geomat. 15.2 (2021): 106-114.
15.Jha, Amit Kumar, Ajai Singh, and Pratibha Warwade. "Effect of tropical dry and wet forest on convective precipitation-A case study of Ranchi Region, Jharkhand, India."
16.Pandit, C. K., A. K. Lal, and U. S. Singh. "Temporal Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature of Ranchi, Jharkhand for Period 1975-2050." Journal of Scientific Research 16.3 (2024): 723-735.
